South Carolina Registered Voters poll of 1569 (weighted) respondents (MOE +/- 2.47%)
ROCK HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA – Despite facing multiple criminal charges, Donald Trump remains South Carolina voters’ top pick to become the 2024 Republican candidate for president, according to the latest Winthrop Poll.
With just under five months until the 2024 South Carolina GOP presidential primary, half of S.C. Republicans say they’re most likely to support Trump for the Republican nomination. Former S.C. Governor Nikki Haley, though now leading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, trails far behind Trump in her home state with 17% of Republicans saying they support her nomination. While Haley is viewed as more favorable than Trump among all South Carolina voters, Trump is still more favorable among Republican voters. Haley’s candidacy gains a bit more support from GOP-leaning Independents but not enough to catch up to the former president.
Winthrop Poll Director Scott Huffmon noted, “We continue to see Trump’s dominance for the nomination in South Carolina. While a distant second, support for Nikki Haley has grown. Haley’s rise coincides with the continued slide of Ron DeSantis with his drop in national polls being mirrored in South Carolina.
While Haley is ascendant in the polls, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott remains in the single digits and is virtually tied with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Both Haley and Scott do a bit better when Republican-leaning Independents are included in the analysis. For both Haley and Scott, an appeal to conservative Independents may offer a path to higher support.”
Results of the 2020 Presidential Election and Approval Ratings
When it comes to the current president, more South Carolina voters disapprove than approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job. When asked about Biden, about 30% approve. This is lower than his national approval rating of 40%.
Thinking back to the 2020 presidential election between Biden and Trump, half of South Carolina voters believe the election was fair and accurate. Republicans are far less likely than Democrats to say the same. According to Huffmon, “Donald Trump’s claims of a rigged 2020 election have been taken to heart by more than 6 out of 10 South Carolina Republicans. The ‘stolen election’ narrative has been a key component of Trump’s 2024 run.”
Meanwhile, 47% of South Carolina voters approve of the way Governor Henry McMaster is handling his job. Among the Republican Party, approval remains strong at 73% compared to 25% among Democrats. Noted Huffmon, “The governor’s approval rating is nearly 14 points higher than his disapproval rating. He remains more popular than not with nearly one-fifth having no opinion. His approval among the Republican base remains solid.”
Half of South Carolina voters disapprove of the way U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham is handling his job. Within his party, approval sits at just under half, with 20% not having a firm opinion. Scott remains more popular than his senior counterpart with a 49% approval from all respondents and 72% among Republicans. Though generally more popular than not, many South Carolina voters (23%) are still unsure about Scott.
Huffmon stated, “Graham’s approval ratings overall are nearly as bad as those for President Biden. This stems from only getting approval from half of his Republican base. Questions about Graham’s GOP base support are likely to fuel speculation that he may face a serious primary challenge in his next election.”
When asked their opinion about men and women as political leaders, a majority of South Carolina voters say that, in general, women and men make equally good political leaders. Twelve percent say men make better political leaders than women, while about 8% say women make better political leaders than men.
Support for Ukraine
Closing in on two years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, S.C. voters were asked what they think the U.S. should do regarding the continuing conflict. When given two possible options, 1 in 5 South Carolina voters are unsure. Forty-one percent support Ukraine in reclaiming territory Russia has captured even if it results in a more prolonged conflict, while 34% want the U.S. to try to end the conflict as quickly as possible, even if it means allowing Russia to keep territory it has captured from Ukraine.
Republicans and Democrats differ in opinion with more Republicans favoring ending the conflict as soon as possible and more Democrats preferring the U.S. support Ukraine in reclaiming territory even if it prolongs the conflict.
Huffmon noted, “The South Carolina parties offer a near mirror image of each other on the issue of Ukraine. While a plurality of Republicans want to end the conflict as quickly as possible, even if that means Ukraine loses territory, nearly the same number of Democrats want to continue supporting Ukraine in its attempt to reclaim lost land.”
What to do with Confederate Monuments?
Given four options for what to do with monuments and memorials to Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War, South Carolina voters largely prefer either leaving them just as they are (34%) or leaving them but adding a plaque or marker for historical interpretation (33%). Forty percent of white respondents said to leave them just as they are compared to 17% of Black respondents. Black respondents more often prefer these monuments and memorials be moved to a museum.
When thinking about the Confederate battle flag, South Carolina voters are fairly split on whether it is more a symbol of racial conflict or of Southern pride. Close to half of white respondents said the flag is more a symbol of southern pride while over half of Black respondents said it is more a symbol of racial conflict.
According to Huffmon, “The issues of confederate monuments and the confederate battle flag still elicit conflict in South Carolina. Despite many who would like to see these issues fade, there remains a clear racial split on these issues.”
Turn of Phrase
Poll respondents were also asked how well certain phrases described both the Democratic and Republican parties. The questions were presented in random order. Respondents were more likely to say that the phrases “governs in an honest and ethical way,” “respects the country’s democratic institutions and traditions,” and “will not compromise to achieve their goals” describe the Republican Party very or somewhat well.
Respondents were more likely to say that the phrases “too extreme in its positions,” “supports policies that interfere too much in people’s lives,” “is good at getting their way,” and “is willing to do what it takes to win elections” describe the Democratic Party very or somewhat well.
A near even majority believe the phrase “respectful and tolerant of different types of people” describes both the Republican and Democratic parties well.
Check out the methodology here. See poll questions and tables here.
For additional information, or to set up an interview with Poll Director Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404 (office) or 803/984-0586 (cell).
