ROCK HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA – Despite currently facing multiple criminal charges, Donald Trump remains South Carolina voters’ top pick to become the 2024 Republican candidate for president according to the latest Winthrop Poll.
With just under five months until the 2024 South Carolina GOP presidential primary, half of S.C. Republicans say they’re most likely to support Trump for the Republican nomination. Former S.C. Governor Nikki Haley, though now leading Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, trails far behind Trump in her home state with 17% of Republicans saying they support her nomination. While Haley is viewed as more favorable than Trump among all South Carolina voters, Trump is still more favorable among Republican voters. Haley’s candidacy gains a bit more support from GOP-leaning Independents but not enough to catch up to the former president.
Winthrop Poll Director Scott Huffmon noted, “We continue to see Trump’s dominance for the nomination in South Carolina. While a distant second, support for Nikki Haley has grown. Haley’s rise coincides with the continued slide of Ron DeSantis with his drop in national polls being mirrored in South Carolina.
While Haley is ascendant in the polls, Tim Scott remains in the single digits and is virtually tied with businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. Both Haley and Scott do a bit better when Republican-leaning Independents are included in the analysis. For both Haley and Scott, an appeal to conservative Independents may offer a path to higher support.”
When it comes to the current president, more South Carolina voters disapprove than approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job. When asked about Biden, about 30% approve. This is lower than his national approval rating of 40%.
Thinking back to the 2020 presidential election between Biden and Trump, half of South Carolina voters believe the election was fair and accurate. Republicans are far less likely than Democrats to say the same. According to Huffmon, “Donald Trump’s claims of a rigged 2020 election have been taken to heart by more than 6 out of 10 South Carolina Republicans. The ‘stolen election’ narrative has been a key component of Trump’s 2024 run.”
Meanwhile, 47% of South Carolina voters approve of the way Governor Henry McMaster is handling his job. Among the Republican Party, approval remains strong at 73% compared to 25% among Democrats. Noted Huffmon, “The governor’s approval rating is nearly 14 points higher than his disapproval rating. He remains more popular than not with nearly one-fifth having no opinion. His approval among the Republican base remains solid.”
Half of South Carolina voters disapprove of the way U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham is handling his job. Within his party, approval sits at just under half, with 20% not having a firm opinion. U.S. Senator Tim Scott remains more popular than his senior counterpart with a 49% approval from all respondents and 72% among Republicans. Though generally more popular than not, many South Carolina voters (23%) are still unsure about Tim Scott.
Huffmon stated, “Graham’s approval ratings overall are nearly as bad as those for President Biden. This stems from only getting approval from half of his Republican base. Questions about Graham’s GOP base support are likely to fuel speculation that he may face a serious primary challenge in his next election.”
When asked their opinion about men and women as political leaders, a majority of South Carolina voters say that, in general, women and men make equally good political leaders. Twelve percent say men make better political leaders than women, while about 8% say women make better political leaders than men.
Closing in on two years since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, S.C. voters were asked what they think the U.S. should do regarding the continuing conflict. When given two possible options, 1 in 5 South Carolina voters are unsure. Forty-one percent support Ukraine in reclaiming territory Russia has captured even if it results in a more prolonged conflict, while 34% want the U.S. to try to end the conflict as quickly as possible, even if it means allowing Russia to keep territory it has captured from Ukraine.
Republicans and Democrats differ in opinion with more Republicans favoring ending the conflict as soon as possible and more Democrats preferring the U.S. support Ukraine in reclaiming territory even if it prolongs the conflict.
Huffmon noted, “The South Carolina parties offer a near mirror image of each other on the issue of Ukraine. While a plurality of Republicans want to end the conflict as quickly as possible, even if that means Ukraine loses territory, nearly the same number of Democrats want to continue supporting Ukraine in its attempt to reclaim lost land.”
Given four options for what to do with monuments and memorials to Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War, South Carolina voters largely prefer either leaving them just as they are (34%) or leaving them but adding a plaque or marker for historical interpretation (33%). Forty percent of white respondents said to leave them just as they are compared to 17% of Black respondents. Black respondents more often prefer these monuments and memorials be moved to a museum.
When thinking about the Confederate battle flag, South Carolina voters are fairly split on whether it is more a symbol of racial conflict or of Southern pride. Close to half of white respondents said the flag is more a symbol of Southern pride while over half of Black respondents said it is more a symbol of racial conflict.
According to Huffmon, “The issues of confederate monuments and the confederate battle flag still elicit conflict in South Carolina. Despite many who would like to see these issues fade, there remains a clear racial split on these issues.”
Winthrop Poll respondents were also asked how well certain phrases described both the Democratic and Republican parties. The questions were presented in random order. Respondents were more likely to say that the phrases “governs in an honest and ethical way,” “respects the country’s democratic institutions and traditions,” and “will not compromise to achieve their goals” describe the Republican Party very or somewhat well.
Respondents were more likely to say that the phrases “too extreme in its positions,” “supports policies that interfere too much in people’s lives,” “is good at getting their way,” and “is willing to do what it takes to win elections” describe the Democratic Party very or somewhat well.
A near even majority believe the phrase “respectful and tolerant of different types of people” describes both the Republican and Democratic parties well.
For additional information, or to set up an interview with Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404 (office) or 803/984-0586 (cell).
RESULTS MAY NOT SUM TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING
TABLE 1: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President of the United States?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Approve |
29.9 |
5.4 |
72.0 |
|
Disapprove |
59.8 |
91.1 |
17.6 |
|
Not sure |
8.3 |
2.4 |
9.4 |
|
Refused |
2.0 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
TABLE 2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Henry McMaster is handling his job as Governor of South Carolina?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Approve |
47.3 |
73.4 |
24.8 |
|
Disapprove |
33.6 |
10.6 |
58.7 |
|
Not sure |
17.2 |
14.8 |
15.1 |
|
Refused |
2.0 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
TABLE 3: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lindsey Graham is handling his job as a United States Senator for South Carolina?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Approve |
30.7 |
49.4 |
18.1 |
|
Disapprove |
50.1 |
29.3 |
69.6 |
|
Not sure |
17.1 |
19.9 |
10.1 |
|
Refused |
2.1 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
TABLE 4: Here is a list of people who may be running for the Republican nomination for president in 2024. Please indicate which ONE of the following candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2024, or if you would support someone else?
[answer options were randomized]
|
|
Republicans Only (MOE +/- 3.95) |
Republicans & GOP Leaning Independents (MOE +/- 3.6) |
|
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum |
0.4 |
0.3 |
|
Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie |
2.1 |
1.9 |
|
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis |
12.1 |
12.1 |
|
Radio host Larry Elder |
-- |
-- |
|
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley |
16.6 |
18.5 |
|
Former Texas Congressman Will Hurd |
-- |
-- |
|
Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
Businessman Perry Johnson |
-- |
-- |
|
Former Vice President Mike Pence |
2.3 |
2.2 |
|
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy |
5.1 |
5.5 |
|
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott |
5.8 |
6.6 |
|
Former President Donald Trump |
50.5 |
47.5 |
|
Someone else |
0.6 |
0.8 |
|
No opinion |
3.5 |
3.5 |
|
Refused |
0.6 |
0.7 |
TABLE 5: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Scott is handling his job as a United States Senator for South Carolina?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Approve |
49.3 |
72.4 |
26.1 |
|
Disapprove |
25.9 |
8.1 |
50.8 |
|
Not sure |
22.5 |
18.2 |
20.9 |
|
Refused |
2.2 |
1.3 |
2.1 |
TABLE 6: Would you say that your view of former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is…
|
|
All Respondents |
Combined |
|
Very Favorable |
27.5 |
58.4 |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
30.9 |
|
|
Neither |
11.3 |
11.3 |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
14.4 |
27.9 |
|
Very Unfavorable |
13.5 |
|
|
Prefer not to answer |
2.4 |
|
|
|
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very Favorable |
40.7 |
11.7 |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
33.6 |
28.9 |
|
Neither |
8.0 |
12.9 |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
10.2 |
21.4 |
|
Very Unfavorable |
6.5 |
22.3 |
|
Prefer not to answer |
1.0 |
2.8 |
TABLE 7: Would you say that your view of Donald Trump is…
|
|
All Respondents |
Combined |
|
Very Favorable |
27.1 |
44.5 |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
17.4 |
|
|
Neither |
5.1 |
5.1 |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
9.6 |
48.7 |
|
Very Unfavorable |
39.1 |
|
|
Prefer not to answer |
1.7 |
|
|
|
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very Favorable |
50.6 |
7.5 |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
26.6 |
6.6 |
|
Neither |
4.2 |
3.8 |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
8.8 |
8.2 |
|
Very Unfavorable |
9.3 |
72.9 |
|
Prefer not to answer |
0.5 |
0.9 |
TABLE 8: Which would you prefer the U.S. to do in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Try to end the conflict as quickly as possible, even if it means allowing Russia to keep territory it has captured from Ukraine |
34.2 |
41.3 |
28.9 |
|
Support Ukraine in reclaiming territory Russia has captured, even if it results in a more prolonged conflict between the two nations |
41.4 |
34.8 |
49.6 |
|
Not sure |
21.2 |
20.7 |
18.8 |
|
Refused |
3.3 |
3.3 |
2.6 |
TABLE 9: Which of the following comes closest to your opinion about what to do with monuments or memorials to Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War?
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
Leave them just as they are |
34.3 |
40.0 |
17.0 |
|
Leave them, but add a plaque or marker for context and historical interpretation |
33.2 |
36.4 |
23.7 |
|
Move them to a museum |
21.2 |
17.0 |
34.8 |
|
Remove them completely |
6.7 |
4.1 |
15.4 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
4.6 |
2.6 |
9.1 |
TABLE 10: Some people say the confederate battle flag reminds them of white supremacy and racial conflict. Other people say the confederate battle flag is a symbol of southern heritage and pride.
Do you think the flag is more a symbol of racial conflict or of southern pride?
|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
|
Racial Conflict |
32.4 |
24.1 |
57.8 |
|
Southern Pride |
38.3 |
48.4 |
8.1 |
|
Equally Both |
22.3 |
20.8 |
27.2 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
7.1 |
6.7 |
7.0 |
TABLE 11: Which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion about men and women as political leaders?
|
|
All Respondents |
|
Men generally make better political leaders than women |
12.1 |
|
Women generally make better political leaders than men |
7.9 |
|
In general, women and men make equally good political leaders |
73.7 |
|
Not sure |
4.8 |
|
Refused |
1.4 |
TABLE 12: Do you believe that the results of the 2020 Presidential election were fair and accurate?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
49.7 |
24.3 |
85.4 |
|
No |
36.8 |
63.4 |
8.0 |
|
Not sure |
12.3 |
11.0 |
6.6 |
|
Refused |
1.2 |
1.3 |
-- |
TABLE 13: How well does the phrase “too extreme in its positions” describe the DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
37.3 |
60.3 |
15.1 |
|
Somewhat well |
25.2 |
23.6 |
21.2 |
|
Not very well |
17.8 |
7.3 |
31.8 |
|
Not at all well |
13.1 |
5.5 |
24.5 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
6.6 |
3.3 |
7.5 |
TABLE 14: How well does the phrase “too extreme in its positions” describe the REPUBLICAN PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
29.6 |
8.9 |
58.6 |
|
Somewhat well |
25.4 |
25.4 |
23.1 |
|
Not very well |
22.4 |
33.5 |
7.1 |
|
Not at all well |
16.0 |
28.1 |
6.4 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
6.5 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
TABLE 15: How well does the phrase “governs in an honest and ethical way” describe the DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
16.3 |
4.6 |
41.4 |
|
Somewhat well |
26.9 |
11.2 |
43.1 |
|
Not very well |
19.7 |
25.7 |
9.2 |
|
Not at all well |
31.3 |
55.7 |
2.4 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
5.7 |
2.8 |
4.0 |
TABLE 16: How well does the phrase “governs in an honest and ethical way” describe the REPUBLICAN PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
17.1 |
32.0 |
10.1 |
|
Somewhat well |
33.3 |
49.7 |
13.9 |
|
Not very well |
20.7 |
9.7 |
26.4 |
|
Not at all well |
22.8 |
4.7 |
45.5 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
6.1 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
TABLE 17: How well does the phrase “respectful and tolerant of different types of people” describe the DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
24.5 |
8.6 |
55.1 |
|
Somewhat well |
29.2 |
20.8 |
34.8 |
|
Not very well |
19.9 |
29.4 |
4.2 |
|
Not at all well |
21.2 |
38.0 |
1.9 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
5.2 |
3.1 |
4.0 |
TABLE 18: How well does the phrase “respectful and tolerant of different types of people” describe the REPUBLICAN PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
20.4 |
36.2 |
9.4 |
|
Somewhat well |
31.5 |
47.2 |
14.1 |
|
Not very well |
19.2 |
10.4 |
24.0 |
|
Not at all well |
23.7 |
3.1 |
49.2 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
5.1 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
TABLE 19: How well does the phrase “respects the country’s democratic institutions and traditions” describe the DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
20.5 |
6.8 |
48.8 |
|
Somewhat well |
27.7 |
14.3 |
41.4 |
|
Not very well |
21.6 |
31.5 |
4.2 |
|
Not at all well |
24.2 |
43.3 |
2.1 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
6.0 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
TABLE 20: How well does the phrase “respects the country’s democratic institutions and traditions” describe the REPUBLICAN PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
21.4 |
38.8 |
10.4 |
|
Somewhat well |
31.9 |
43.5 |
17.4 |
|
Not very well |
19.0 |
9.1 |
28.2 |
|
Not at all well |
21.3 |
4.6 |
38.6 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
6.4 |
4.1 |
5.4 |
TABLE 21: How well does the phrase “supports policies that interfere too much in people’s lives” describe the DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
37.6 |
58.7 |
19.0 |
|
Somewhat well |
25.1 |
21.6 |
23.7 |
|
Not very well |
17.4 |
8.1 |
29.3 |
|
Not at all well |
13.0 |
7.6 |
21.4 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
6.8 |
3.9 |
6.6 |
TABLE 22: How well does the phrase “supports policies that interfere too much in people’s lives” describe the REPUBLICAN PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
23.7 |
9.1 |
44.4 |
|
Somewhat well |
25.4 |
19.5 |
28.9 |
|
Not very well |
25.5 |
35.6 |
11.7 |
|
Not at all well |
18.0 |
30.2 |
9.9 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
7.4 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
TABLE 23: How well does the phrase “is good at getting their way” describe the DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
29.2 |
48.0 |
15.5 |
|
Somewhat well |
32.7 |
30.5 |
29.8 |
|
Not very well |
21.9 |
11.6 |
35.4 |
|
Not at all well |
8.6 |
4.9 |
13.4 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
7.6 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
TABLE 24: How well does the phrase “is good at getting their way” describe the REPUBLICAN PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
18.1 |
6.7 |
32.2 |
|
Somewhat well |
32.9 |
30.3 |
40.2 |
|
Not very well |
29.8 |
44.8 |
10.6 |
|
Not at all well |
11.3 |
13.0 |
9.4 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
7.9 |
5.2 |
7.5 |
TABLE 25: How well does the phrase “is willing to do what it takes to win elections” describe the DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
41.5 |
65.2 |
20.0 |
|
Somewhat well |
26.6 |
18.9 |
32.4 |
|
Not very well |
15.9 |
6.7 |
26.8 |
|
Not at all well |
8.9 |
4.9 |
15.0 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
7.1 |
4.4 |
5.9 |
TABLE 26: How well does the phrase “is willing to do what it takes to win elections” describe the REPUBLICAN PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
33.4 |
15.6 |
58.3 |
|
Somewhat well |
28.0 |
31.5 |
23.3 |
|
Not very well |
21.1 |
32.8 |
7.3 |
|
Not at all well |
10.5 |
14.5 |
6.4 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
7.0 |
5.5 |
4.7 |
TABLE 27: How well does the phrase “will not compromise to achieve their goals” describe the DEMOCRATIC PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
26.6 |
36.8 |
21.2 |
|
Somewhat well |
28.5 |
23.6 |
32.2 |
|
Not very well |
20.8 |
14.8 |
26.6 |
|
Not at all well |
17.4 |
20.2 |
14.6 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
6.7 |
4.6 |
5.4 |
TABLE 28: How well does the phrase “will not compromise to achieve their goals” describe the REPUBLICAN PARTY?
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very well |
26.2 |
17.0 |
41.5 |
|
Somewhat well |
32.3 |
39.4 |
26.5 |
|
Not very well |
21.3 |
26.1 |
12.4 |
|
Not at all well |
13.6 |
12.0 |
14.6 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
6.6 |
5.4 |
4.9 |
