ROCK HILL, SOUTH CAROLINA – According to the latest Winthrop Poll, 41% of South Carolinians believe a criminal conviction for Donald Trump decreases his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election.
In a survey-based experiment conducted before the results of Trump’s trial were announced on May 30, respondents were randomly assigned to one of two conditions that asked them to speculate about the impact of Donald Trump’s legal woes on his chances of winning in November. One question merely mentioned the already well-known accusations, while the other mentioned the accusations, but also asked about the possible results if Trump were convicted of a crime. Since the poll was completed before the results of his first trial were known, they cannot have been tainted by knowledge of the outcome. Therefore, the poll findings represent the unvarnished opinions of how respondents believe a criminal conviction could change Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.
Other results from this general population survey of 1,174 South Carolinians (margin of error +/-2.86%):
Respondents were reached May 8-21, 2024 via an online non-probability panel curated by Dynata. Results have a margin of error of approximately +/-2.86% at the 95% confidence level. Subgroups have higher margins of error.
See the full results and decriptions below.
For additional information, or to set up an interview with Scott Huffmon, please contact Judy Longshaw at longshawj@winthrop.edu or 803/323-2404 (office) or 803/984-0586 (cell).
More about online panel methodology (Source: Dynata)
RESULTS MAY NOT SUM TO 100 DUE TO ROUNDING
Over half of South Carolinians (55%) disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president. Among Republicans, 91% disapprove and 7% approve. Among Democrats, 77% approve and 13% disapprove.
According to Winthrop Poll Director Dr. Scott Huffmon, “Biden’s approval ratings in South Carolina remain below his national approval ratings. This is to be expected in this red state. Nationally, Biden’s approval ratings are lower than Trump’s were at a similar point in his presidency and are much lower than Obama’s 48% approval rating at a similar point in his first presidency (according to Gallup).”
When it comes to Governor Henry McMaster, 41% of South Carolinians approve of the way he is handling his job. A quarter (25%) are not sure. South Carolinians are more approving of Senator Tim Scott than Senator Lindsey Graham. Among all respondents, Lindsey Graham received 34% approval and Tim Scott received 41% approval.
Huffmon noted, “Governor McMaster has his head well above water with his approval solidly ahead of his disapproval. McMaster remains strongly supported by his Republican base in the state. Senator Scott is similarly strongly supported by the South Carolina Republican base. While a solid majority of Republicans approve of Senator Graham, his support is eleven points below that of either McMaster or Scott.”
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TABLE 1: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President of the United States? |
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|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Approve |
32 |
7 |
77 |
|
Disapprove |
55 |
91 |
13 |
|
Not sure |
11 |
2 |
10 |
|
Refused |
3 |
1 |
0 |
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TABLE 2: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Henry McMaster is handling his job as Governor of South Carolina? |
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Approve |
41 |
68 |
21 |
|
Disapprove |
32 |
11 |
59 |
|
Not sure |
25 |
21 |
18 |
|
Refused |
3 |
1 |
2 |
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TABLE 3: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Lindsey Graham is handling his job as a United States Senator for South Carolina? |
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|
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Approve |
34 |
57 |
20 |
|
Disapprove |
40 |
20 |
62 |
|
Not sure |
24 |
22 |
15 |
|
Refused |
3 |
2 |
2 |
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TABLE 4: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Scott is handling his job as a United States Senator for South Carolina? |
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Approve |
41 |
68 |
20 |
|
Disapprove |
27 |
7 |
51 |
|
Not sure |
30 |
25 |
26 |
|
Refused |
3 |
1 |
3 |
Nikki Haley is viewed as favorable among almost half of South Carolinians (48%). Haley is slightly more favorable than Donald Trump who received a 45% favorability rating, but Trump is far more favorable than Haley among Republicans in the state. Eighty-four percent of Republicans have a favorable view of Trump while 56% have a favorable view of Haley. A strong majority of Democrats have an unfavorable view of Trump, but Democratic views of Haley are much more evenly split with 43% viewing her as favorable and 38% viewing her as unfavorable.
According to Huffmon, “Haley’s favorability ratings remain overall strong with nearly half of South Carolinians viewing her favorably and a strong majority of SC Republicans viewing her favorably. The results from this general population poll are nearly identical to her favorability ratings from the February 2024 Winthrop Poll of registered voters in SC. Donald Trump’s favorability in the general SC population is slightly below that of Haley, but his favorability among Republicans in South Carolina, as one might expect, is incredibly high.”
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TABLE 5: Would you say that your view of former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley is generally favorable or unfavorable? |
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All Respondents |
Combined |
|
Very Favorable |
20 |
48 |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
28 |
|
|
Neither |
20 |
20 |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
15 |
29 |
|
Very Unfavorable |
14 |
|
|
Refused |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very Favorable |
27 |
16 |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
29 |
27 |
|
Neither |
15 |
19 |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
15 |
17 |
|
Very Unfavorable |
13 |
21 |
|
Refused |
1 |
1 |
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TABLE 6: Would you say that your view of Donald Trump is generally favorable or unfavorable? |
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|
|
All Respondents |
Combined |
|
Very Favorable |
23 |
45 |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
22 |
|
|
Neither |
8 |
8 |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
9 |
45 |
|
Very Unfavorable |
36 |
|
|
Refused |
2 |
2 |
|
|
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Very Favorable |
53 |
4 |
|
Somewhat Favorable |
31 |
9 |
|
Neither |
3 |
5 |
|
Somewhat Unfavorable |
7 |
8 |
|
Very Unfavorable |
6 |
73 |
|
Refused |
0 |
2 |
A large majority of South Carolinians (82%) favor a state law requiring undergraduates at public colleges and universities to take a course that teaches financial literacy. A majority (73%) also favors a law requiring undergraduate students to take a course that teaches the US founding documents, such as the Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution. Republicans and Democrats are in agreement in their support for such laws.
When it comes to a law requiring undergraduates take a course that teaches diversity, equity, and inclusion, a majority (57%) is in favor. Republicans are divided over this topic with 38% in favor, 41% in opposition, and 21% unsure. Democrats are more definitive in their support for a law requiring diversity, equity, and inclusion education with 83% in favor of a law requiring it.
The same trends exist for requiring undergraduates to take a course on the impact of slavery in America. Just over half (51%) of South Carolinians favor such a law, Republicans are more divided (33% favor, 36% oppose, 28% unsure), and Democrats most supportive with 75% in favor.
These questions (listed in Tables 7-10) were displayed in random order one at a time.
Sixty-seven percent of South Carolinians favor the 2021 state law that requires undergraduates at public colleges and universities to take a course where they read documents foundational to the African American Freedom struggle. A majority of both Republicans and Democrats favor this law – 62% and 76% respectively.
Poll Director Huffmon notes, “There are some similarities as well as differences between Republicans and Democrats on what courses should be required in a college education. There is broad agreement on teaching financial literacy and about America’s Founding Documents. However, we see a strong partisan difference over whether colleges should require courses on ‘diversity, equity, and inclusion,’ or about slavery’s impact on America. For example, three-quarters of Democrats believe that students should learn about the history of slavery in America, while only one-third of Republicans agree. The teaching of topics like structural racism and diversity, equity, and inclusion has been a hot topic in recent culture wars over education, despite the fact that a Financial Times study of 5.4 million courses at 4,000 institutions of higher education found that only 0.08% covered topics of ‘critical race theory (CRT), structural racism, systemic racism or diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI).’" (see https://tinyurl.com/2bn7tzyz )
Huffmon continues, “One interesting finding is that support for a Founding Documents requirement among Republicans significantly drops when the Emancipation Proclamation and information on the African American Freedom struggle are added to the mix. In fact, the 2021 Reinforcing College Education on America’s Constitutional Heritage Act (REACH Act) passed by the South Carolina Legislature requires the teaching of the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and five of the Federalist Papers as well as the Emancipation Proclamation and at least one document related to the ‘African American struggle’.”
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TABLE 7: Would you favor or oppose a state law requiring undergraduates at public colleges and universities to take a course that teaches financial literacy? |
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Favor |
82 |
84 |
82 |
|
Oppose |
6 |
6 |
6 |
|
Not sure |
11 |
10 |
11 |
|
Refused |
1 |
0 |
1 |
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TABLE 8: Would you favor or oppose a state law requiring undergraduates at public colleges and universities to take a course that teaches the U.S. founding documents such as the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution? |
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|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Favor |
73 |
78 |
72 |
|
Oppose |
9 |
8 |
11 |
|
Not sure |
16 |
13 |
16 |
|
Refused |
1 |
0 |
0 |
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TABLE 9: Would you favor or oppose a law requiring undergraduates at public colleges and universities to take a course that teaches diversity, equity, and inclusion? |
|||
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Favor |
57 |
38 |
83 |
|
Oppose |
23 |
41 |
6 |
|
Not sure |
18 |
21 |
11 |
|
Refused |
2 |
1 |
0 |
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TABLE 10: Would you favor or oppose a law requiring undergraduates at public colleges and universities to take a course that teaches about the impact of slavery on America? |
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|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Favor |
51 |
33 |
75 |
|
Oppose |
23 |
36 |
11 |
|
Not sure |
23 |
28 |
14 |
|
Refused |
3 |
2 |
0 |
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TABLE 11: A 2021 South Carolina law requires undergraduates at public colleges and universities to complete a course where they read the Declaration of Independence, the U.S. Constitution, five Federalist Papers, the Emancipation Proclamation, and one or more documents that are foundational to the African American Freedom struggle. Do you favor or oppose this law? |
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|
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Favor |
67 |
62 |
76 |
|
Oppose |
11 |
15 |
7 |
|
Not sure |
19 |
22 |
15 |
|
Refused |
3 |
1 |
2 |
Over 80% of South Carolinians believe women should be able to obtain a legal abortion if the pregnancy threatens the woman’s life or health or if the pregnancy is the result of rape. A strong majority of both Republicans and Democrats support the legality of abortion in these circumstances.
Sixty percent of South Carolinians believe women should be able to obtain a legal abortion if the baby is likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems. Just over half of Republicans (51%) and almost three-quarters of Democrats (74%) support the legality of abortion in this situation.
Almost half of South Carolinians (48%) oppose the state’s near-total 6-week abortion ban. Thirty-one percent support the ban and 17% are unsure. Most Republicans (43%) support the ban while a majority of Democrats (59%) oppose it. Republicans are slightly more unsure of whether they support or oppose the ban than are Democrats.
Huffmon added, “Very strong majorities in South Carolina, including strong majorities among both Democrats and Republicans, believe abortion should remain legal under some circumstances such as the health of the mother and if the pregnancy was due to rape. Fewer than one-third of South Carolinians support SC’s current abortion ban after 6 weeks. In fact, the measure is supported by even less than half of Republicans in SC. However, the opinion among Republicans is much more nuanced. While less than half may support the 6-week abortion ban, even fewer oppose the ban, meaning more Republicans support the ban than oppose it. This is the result of nearly one-fifth of Republicans reporting they are ‘not sure’ (17%) or refusing to answer (2%).”
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TABLE 12: Should a woman be able to obtain a legal abortion if the pregnancy threatens the woman's life or health? |
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|
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
84 |
79 |
90 |
|
No |
5 |
8 |
4 |
|
Not sure |
8 |
10 |
5 |
|
Refused |
3 |
4 |
2 |
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TABLE 13: Should a woman be able to obtain a legal abortion if the pregnancy is the result of rape? |
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|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
81 |
73 |
90 |
|
No |
9 |
14 |
5 |
|
Not sure |
8 |
10 |
4 |
|
Refused |
2 |
2 |
2 |
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TABLE 14: Should a woman be able to obtain a legal abortion if the baby is likely to be born with severe disabilities or health problems? |
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|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
60 |
51 |
74 |
|
No |
18 |
25 |
11 |
|
Not sure |
18 |
21 |
13 |
|
Refused |
4 |
3 |
2 |
|
TABLE 15: As you may know, a typical pregnancy lasts 40 weeks.
|
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|
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Support ban on most abortions after 6 weeks |
31 |
43 |
25 |
|
Oppose ban on most abortions after 6 weeks |
48 |
38 |
59 |
|
Not sure |
17 |
17 |
12 |
|
Refused |
5 |
2 |
5 |
A majority of South Carolinians (62%) do not believe that leaders in America are ordained by God. Republicans and Democrats share similar views with 57% and 63% respectively saying they do not believe that leaders are ordained by God.
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TABLE 16: Do you believe that leaders in America are ordained by God? |
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Yes |
16 |
19 |
21 |
|
No |
62 |
57 |
63 |
|
Not sure |
18 |
21 |
13 |
|
Refused |
4 |
2 |
4 |
Nearly half of South Carolinians (47%) do not think the federal government should declare the US a Christian nation. Republicans and Democrats differ with most Republicans (43%) wanting the US declared as a Christian nation and most Democrats (48%) saying they do not.
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TABLE 17: Would you say that you strongly disagree, disagree, are undecided, agree, or strongly agree with the following statement? The federal government should declare the United States a Christian nation. |
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Strongly disagree |
23 |
12 |
30 |
|
Disagree |
24 |
25 |
18 |
|
Undecided |
20 |
18 |
21 |
|
Agree |
15 |
20 |
15 |
|
Strongly agree |
14 |
23 |
12 |
|
Refused |
5 |
2 |
5 |
When it comes to what to do with monuments or memorials to Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War, 32% of South Carolinians say to leave them just as they are, and another 32% say to leave them but add a plaque or marker for context and historical interpretation. White respondents most often said the same – either to leave them as they are (40%) or to add a plaque or marker (35%). Most Black respondents (28%) said to move them to a museum.
Half of Republicans said to leave these monuments and memorials just as they are. Democrats are more evenly split on what to do, but most (32%) prefer to move them to a museum.
When asked about the symbolism of the Confederate battle flag, 33% said it is more a symbol of Southern pride, 25% said it’s more a symbol of racial conflict, and 32% said it is equally a symbol of Southern pride and racial conflict.
White respondents (44%) most often said the flag is more a symbol of Southern pride while 47% of Black respondents said it’s more a symbol of racial conflict. Divide over the symbolism of the flag exists even more sharply between parties. Sixty percent of Republicans said the Confederate battle flag is more a symbol of Southern pride as opposed to 12% of Democrats. Fifty-one percent of Democrats said the flag is more a symbol of racial conflict as opposed to 7% of Republicans.
Huffmon explained, “When it comes to venerating the Confederacy, the political parties have switched places. During and after the Civil War, southern white Democrats were the party of slavery and white supremacy while southern Blacks, to the degree they were able to participate in politics during Reconstruction after the war, tended to identify as Republicans. As the races in the South sorted between parties in the later part of the 20th century, with the majority of southern whites moving to the Republican Party while Blacks overwhelmingly began to identify as Democrats, support for Confederate symbols also switched. In fact, the divide between Republicans and Democrats is even starker than the difference between whites and Blacks in South Carolina. While 40% of whites want to leave Confederate monuments alone versus 15% of Blacks, a full 50% of Republicans want the monuments left alone versus 18% of Democrats. This trend continues with attitudes toward the Confederate flag. Sixty percent of Republicans see the Confederate battle flag as a symbol of southern pride as opposed to 44% of all whites. Fifty-one percent of Democrats see the flag as a symbol of racial conflict as opposed to only 7% of Republicans. This divide is greater than the racial divide between whites and Blacks.”
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TABLE 18: Which of the following comes closest to your opinion about what to do with monuments or memorials to Confederate soldiers who died during the Civil War? |
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|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Leave them just as they are |
32 |
40 |
15 |
50 |
18 |
|
Leave them, but add a plaque or marker for context and historical interpretation |
32 |
35 |
21 |
33 |
26 |
|
Move them to a museum |
20 |
17 |
28 |
12 |
32 |
|
Remove them completely |
7 |
3 |
16 |
2 |
15 |
|
Don't know |
7 |
4 |
12 |
3 |
7 |
|
Refused |
3 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
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TABLE 19: Some people say the confederate flag reminds them of white supremacy and racial conflict. Other people say the confederate battle flag is a symbol of southern heritage and pride. Do you think the flag is more a symbol of racial conflict or of southern pride? |
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|
|
All Respondents |
White Respondents |
Black Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Racial Conflict |
25 |
16 |
47 |
7 |
51 |
|
Southern Pride |
33 |
44 |
9 |
60 |
12 |
|
Equally Both |
32 |
32 |
32 |
28 |
31 |
|
Not sure |
8 |
7 |
9 |
5 |
4 |
|
Refused |
2 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
Forty-one percent of South Carolinians sympathize more with the Israelis than with the Palestinians regarding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Thirty-four percent are not sure of who they sympathize with more. Though 28% of Republicans are unsure, a majority (61%) sympathize more with the Israelis. Democrats are more split and unsure; 37% said they are not sure who they sympathize most with, 29% sympathize more with the Israelis, and 25% sympathize more with the Palestinians.
Over half of South Carolinians (52%) think supporting Israel is in the national interest of the United States. A majority of Republicans (68%) and a plurality of Democrats (49%) think supporting Israel is best for the US.
Huffmon noted, “The national trends between the parties are borne out in South Carolina with Republicans lining up more strongly behind Israel.”
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TABLE 20: From what you know about the situation in the Middle East, do your sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians? |
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|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Israelis |
41 |
61 |
29 |
|
Palestinians |
18 |
9 |
25 |
|
Not sure |
34 |
28 |
37 |
|
Refused |
7 |
2 |
9 |
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TABLE 21: Which comes closer to your line of thinking: supporting Israel is in the national interest of the United States or supporting Israel is not in the national interest of the United States? |
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|
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All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
IS in United States' interest |
52 |
68 |
49 |
|
Is NOT in United States' interest |
17 |
13 |
19 |
|
Not sure |
26 |
18 |
26 |
|
Refused |
5 |
1 |
7 |
Sixty-one percent of South Carolinians would support an additional one cent sales tax in their county if the funds were used to improve roads within their own county. Republicans and Democrats are both in support of such a tax.
Huffmon cautioned, “We should remember that while attitudes from any single county cannot be inferred from this data, it appears that solid majorities approve of the concept of a one cent sales tax dedicated to road repair. While conventional wisdom holds that the population will always oppose all taxes, the facts – highlighted here and by other research – show that many do approve of taxes as long as they know both where the money is going and that it could benefit them.”
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TABLE 22: Would you support or oppose an additional one cent sales tax in your county to be specifically used to repair and maintain roads only in your county? |
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|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
Support |
61 |
62 |
67 |
|
Oppose |
25 |
27 |
20 |
|
Not sure |
12 |
11 |
10 |
|
Refused |
3 |
1 |
3 |
In this Winthrop Poll, we wanted to see whether the actual conviction of a crime would influence the perception of the likelihood of Trump’s election over and above his legal issues, in general. The questions within these tables were randomized, and each respondent was asked only one version. These questions were asked prior to the May 30 conviction, so they are untainted by respondent knowledge of the conviction.
Of those who were asked only to consider Trump’s legal situation without mention of a conviction, 35% said his situation would decrease his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election. Thirty-two percent said this would neither increase nor decrease his chances of winning while 20% said his legal situation would increase his chances of winning. Republicans (38%) were more likely than Democrats (8%) to think his legal situation would increase his chances of winning the election. A majority of Democrats (55%) said this would decrease his chances of winning.
Of those who were asked to consider Trump being convicted of a crime before the 2024 presidential election, 41% of all respondents said this would decrease his chances of winning. Twenty-six percent said this would have no impact and 19% said this would increase his chances of winning. Among Republicans, 33% said a conviction would increase his chances of winning the election while 30% said it would have no impact and 29% said it would decrease his chances. Among Democrats, 52% said a conviction would decrease his chances of winning the election, 24% said it would have no impact, and 11% said it would increase his chances of winning.
Huffmon explained, “The only majority who believed that Trump’s legal woes - in general - or an actual conviction, would harm his chances of victory were Democrats, as one might expect. However, we find some interesting results among Republicans. Despite the very loud objections of some Trump supporters after the verdicts, there is a significant 10-point difference between Republicans predicting Trump’s legal issues, broadly conceived, would hold him back in the election versus those who speculated that an actual conviction would harm his electoral chances. Even if we see Republicans begin to toe the official Trump line that his conviction is part of some greater persecution and will actually help his campaign, 53% more of them (29% v. 19%) admitted pre-conviction that an actual criminal conviction might hurt his electoral prospects even more than just being under investigation or indictment.”
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TABLE 23: As you may know, former President Trump has been criminally charged in four separate federal and state court cases. Assuming Trump is the 2024 Republican candidate for President, and given Trump’s legal situation… |
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|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
This would decrease his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election |
35 |
19 |
55 |
|
This would increase his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election |
20 |
38 |
8 |
|
This would neither increase nor decrease his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election |
32 |
33 |
22 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
13 |
10 |
15 |
|
TABLE 24: As you may know, former President Trump has been criminally charged in four separate federal and state court cases. It is possible that Trump could be convicted of a crime before the 2024 general election. Assuming Trump is the 2024 Republican candidate for President, but is convicted of a crime... |
|||
|
|
All Respondents |
Republicans (not including leaners) |
Democrats (not including leaners) |
|
This would decrease his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election |
41 |
29 |
52 |
|
This would increase his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election |
19 |
33 |
11 |
|
This would neither increase nor decrease his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election |
26 |
30 |
24 |
|
Not sure/Refused |
14 |
8 |
13 |
